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Research Article | Open Access

Analyzing the dynamics of fractional spatio-temporal SEIR epidemic model

A. E. Matouk1,2( )Ismail Gad Ameen3( )Yasmeen Ahmed Gaber3
Department of Mathematics, College of Science Al-Zulfi, Majmaah University, Al-Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia
College of Engineering, Majmaah University, Al-Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, South Valley University, Qena 83523, Egypt
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Abstract

In this work, we present a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal SEIR epidemic model of fractional order. The infection dynamics in the proposed fractional order model (FOM) are described by a system of partial differential equations (PDEs) within a time-fractional order and diffusion operator in one-dimensional space, considering that the total population is split into four compartments: Susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals denoted as S, E, I and R, respectively. Our contributions commence by establishing the existence and uniqueness of positively bounded solutions for the proposed FOM. Moreover, we determined all equilibrium points (EPs) and investigated their local stability based on the basic reproduction number (BRN) R0, which is calculated by the next-generation matrix (NGM) method. Additionally, we demonstrated global stability using an appropriate Lyapunov function with fractional LaSalle's invariance principle (LIP). Sensitivity analysis of the FOM parameters was discussed to identify the most critical parameters by which the volume of disease propagation can be measured. The theoretical findings were corroborated by numerical simulations of solutions that are displayed in 3D and 2D graphs. Graphical simulations highlight the effect of vaccination on infection severity. Changing the fractional order α in the proposed FOM has an influence on the speed of convergence to the steady state as a result of the memory effect. Furthermore, vaccination emerges as an effective strategy for disease control.

CLC number: 26A33, 65R10, 92B05, 93D20

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AIMS Mathematics
Pages 30838-30863

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Cite this article:
Matouk AE, Ameen IG, Gaber YA. Analyzing the dynamics of fractional spatio-temporal SEIR epidemic model. AIMS Mathematics, 2024, 9(11): 30838-30863. https://doi.org/10.3934/math.20241489

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Received: 02 August 2024
Revised: 08 October 2024
Accepted: 23 October 2024
Published: 30 October 2024
©2024 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)