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Research Article | Open Access

Reconstructed graph spatio-temporal stochastic controlled differential equation for traffic flow forecasting

Ruxin Xue1Jinggui Huang2( )Zaitang Huang1Bingyan Li1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530100, China
Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, China-Asean Institute of Statistics, Nanning 530003, China
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Abstract

Spatio-temporal graph data have been widely applied in traffic flow prediction tasks. Traditional methods often combine graph convolutional networks with recurrent neural networks based on the original graph structure. However, these methods typically struggle with issues such as incomplete sensor distributions and unresolved potential dependencies between different parallel intersections. Moreover, the model structure often fails to capture the noise inherent in traffic predictions, which becomes a significant barrier to accurate forecasting. To address these challenges, we proposed a novel approach that diverges from traditional traffic flow models, which rely on predefined graph structures. Instead, our method uncovers hidden edge connectivity and integrates the data into a unified framework, enabling the model to better capture the underlying spatial relationships. Specifically, we introduced a new framework that combines neural control differential equations with stochastic differential equations to enhance spatio-temporal graph modeling. This integration improves the model's capacity to capture complex spatio-temporal patterns, thereby enhancing the accuracy of prediction tasks. Extensive experiments conducted on benchmark datasets validate the effectiveness of our method.

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Electronic Research Archive
Pages 2543-2566

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Cite this article:
Xue R, Huang J, Huang Z, et al. Reconstructed graph spatio-temporal stochastic controlled differential equation for traffic flow forecasting. Electronic Research Archive, 2025, 33(4): 2543-2566. https://doi.org/10.3934/era.2025113

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Received: 13 March 2025
Revised: 15 April 2025
Accepted: 16 April 2025
Published: 15 April 2025
©2025 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)