Ensemble deep learning-based lane-changing behavior prediction of manually driven vehicles in mixed traffic environments

Accurately predicting lane-changing behaviors (lane keeping, left lane change and right lane change) in real-time is essential for ensuring traffic safety, particularly in mixed-traffic environments with both autonomous and manual vehicles. This paper proposes a fused model that predicts vehicle lane-changing behaviors based on the road traffic environment and vehicle motion parameters. The model combines the ensemble learning XGBoost algorithm with the deep learning Bi-GRU neural network. The XGBoost algorithm first checks whether the present environment is safe for the lane change and then evaluates the likelihood that the target vehicle will make a lane change. Subsequently, the Bi-GRU neural network is used to accurately forecast the lane-changing behaviors of nearby vehicles using the feasibility of lane-changing and the vehicle's motion status as input features. The highD trajectory dataset was utilized for training and testing the model. The model achieved an accuracy of 98.82%, accurately predicting lane changes with an accuracy exceeding 87% within a 2-second timeframe. By comparing with other methods and conducting experimental validation, we have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model, thus, the research achievement is of utmost significance for the practical application of autonomous driving technology.