Evolution characteristics and attribution analysis of water discharge from the Yellow River into sea during 1956-2022

To quantify the impacts of human activities and climate change on the evolution of water discharge from the Yellow River into sea, socio-economic water consumption was incorporated into the calculation process. Using restored natural runoff data and the elasticity coefficient method based on the Budyko hypothesis, this study analyzed the evolution characteristics of water discharge from the Yellow River into sea from 1956 to 2022, and identified the driving factors of the changes in water discharge in the period before flow cessation (1956-1971), flow cessation period (1972-1998), and the recovery period (1999-2022). The results indicated that from 1956 to 2022, the water discharge from the Yellow River into sea exhibited a significant declining trend. Although a notable increase occurred during 2018-2022, the average annual water discharge into sea during the recovery period remained lower than that during the flow cessation period. Increased socio-economic water consumption was the dominant factor leading to the decline in water discharge into sea during the flow cessation period, with a contribution rate of 44.45%. In contrast, during the recovery period, underlying surface changes became the primary factor leading to further reductions, accounting for 100.74% of the contribution. The future trajectory of the water discharge from the Yellow River into sea remains uncertain, necessitating further research to elucidate its evolving trends and ensure sustainable water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin.