Construction of “defining city, land, population, and industry based on water” regulation and control model based on spatial equilibrium of water resources

In order to realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future, a complete and rigorous model system for “defining city, land, population, and industry based on water”, suitable for balance measurement and dynamic control of water resources in different provinces and cities, was created. The total regional water consumption was predicted by the support vector machine (SVM) model based on fuzzy information granulation window, the regional sub-water consumption was predicted by the autoregressive-SVM model based on time series similarity analysis, and uncertainty of the two types of data was analyzed. Complex regression functions were constructed to predict various water use indicators in different scenarios, which were used as future water use indicators under current water use pattern after statistical test. Then, a water resources carrying capacity model of “defining city, land, population, and industry based on water” and a water resouces spatial equilibrium model were constructed, and three indicators including the water resources loading coefficient, water consumption efficiency, and matching factor of water and soil resources were selected based on the future total water consumption, future sub-water consumption, and future water use indicators, to quantify the spatial equilibrium degree of water resources in combination with the Gini coefficient and analyze the future equilibrium degree of water resources under current water use pattern. Finally, an optimization model was constructed, with minimization of the Gini coefficient as the objective function, to adjust the future water use pattern and realize dynamic regulation of water resources. The model system can realize the spatial equilibrium and dynamic regulation of water resources at different time scales in the future.