Risk assessment of water-food system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

A risk assessment system of water-food system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was constructed. Considering the factor of agricultural water footprint, risk assessment of the water food system in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 in three time periods was performed. The results showed that the overall water-food system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faced a risk of damage from 2000 to 2020, indicating that the system would be at risk and cause significant damage. Cities such as Handan, Zhangjiakou, and Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province had the highest systemic risk, while Beijing had the lowest. In terms of time variation, most areas in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the research period were classified as level Ⅲ risk, with four areas of level Ⅳ risk in the first period (2000-2006), two areas in the second period (2007-2013), and 0 in the third period (2014-2020). The system stability has improved over time. In terms of spatial changes, the area with the highest risk in the first two periods was Zhangjiakou, and in the third period was Handan. The regions with the least risk in the three periods are Xingtai, Beijing, and Tangshan. In terms of the contribution of risk indicators, the main factors causing risk of the system from 2000 to 2020 were water shortage rate of agricultural irrigation, and the main factors bearing risk were the degree of water-saving irrigation, the construction status of agricultural irrigation facilities, and the rate of local water resources meeting demand.