Spatio temporal evolution of decoupling between water resources stress and economic development in Hubei Province

With the water resources stress index taken as an indicator, Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze the trend and abrupt change points of water resources stress in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020, and the Tapio decoupling model was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the decoupling relationship between water resources stress and economic development. The results show that except in 2016 and 2020, the overall water resources stress in Hubei Province was relatively large, showing a spatial trend of maximum in western Hubei, middle in eastern Hubei, and minimum in central Hubei; the overall water resources stress in Hubei Province showed a downward trend, and abrupt change points occurred around 2012 and 2019; the decoupling relationship between water resources stress and economic development in Hubei Province experienced from strong decoupling during 2012-2016 to expansionary negative decoupling during 2017-2019, and then to recessionary decoupling in 2020 in time sequence due to fluctuations in hydrological characteristics; because of the differences in natural climate and development strategies, spatially, the average decoupling rate in Hubei Province experienced a gradual transition from the lowest in western Hubei, the middle in eastern Hubei, and the highest in central Hubei during 2012-2016, to the lowest in eastern Hubei, the middle in central Hubei, and the highest in western Hubei during 2017-2019, and finally tended to be balanced in 2020. Therefore, Hubei Province should pay more attention to formulating water stress response plans based on hydrological fluctuations, and implement industrial structure adjustment in eastern Hubei and central Hubei in the future.