The risk sharing mechanism of PPP projects in operational water conservancy scenic spots based on the AHP-Shapley value method

Clarifying the subject of risk bearing and sharing proportion of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) project in operational water conservancy scenic spots is fundamental to attracting social capital, fostering government-enterprise collaboration, and ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of such projects. Using the WSR methodology, this paper identifies 23 risks in PPP projects for operational water conservancy scenic spots based on the three dimensions of Wuli, Shili, and Renli. It establishes risk sharing principles and clarifies the responsible entities for each risk. For risks to be jointly borne by the government and enterprises, a stochastic cooperative game model is constructed, and the AHP-Shapley value method is used to calculate the Shapley value for risk sharing. A proportional risk sharing model between the government and enterprises for jointly borne risks in such projects is established. The feasibility of the model is verified using a case study of a PPP project in an operational water conservancy scenic spot in Jiangsu Province. The results indicate that risks and their responsible entities in PPP projects for operational water conservancy scenic spots can be systematically identified based on the dimensions of Wuli, Shili, and Renli, and the proportion of risks that should be shared between the government and enterprises is determined using the AHP-Shapley value method.