The spatiotemporal evolution and spatial effects of urban drought disaster resilience in China: an epirical test of 109 cities in the WEIS framework

In the “water-economy-institution” synergy(WEIS) framework, this study selects panel data from 109 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2023, and systematically examines the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial interaction, and contributing factors of urban drought resilience through integrated spatial statistical analysis and dynamic panel econometric methods. The findings reveal that urban drought disaster resilience in China has continuously improved, yet significant regional disparities persist, forming a clustered pattern characterized by “high values concentrated in the eastern region and low values stagnant in the western region”. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of hyper-variable density continues to rise, indicating that urban differences are shifting from traditional geographical segmentation toward functional differentiation across regions. Resilience evolution exhibits path dependence, however, spatial spillover effects from high-resilience neighboring areas can effectively break the lock-in of low-resilience levels in certain cities. Industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation, and government intervention significantly enhance resilience, while surface vegetation cover and road expansion may hinder resilience growth due to competition for ecological water use and increased impervious surfaces. Therefore, Chinese cities should deepen the synergistic practice of the WEIS framework, implement precise governance under functional zoning, strengthen cross-regional collaboration and institutional flexibility, promote industrial upgrading and water-saving technological innovation, thereby enhancing urban resilience to drought disasters.