Decoupling analysis of water-energy-food-ecology system vulnerability and economic resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In the context of increasing global climate change and resource constraints, clarifying the decoupling relationship between the water-energy-food-ecology system (WEFE) system vulnerability and economic resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is crucial for coordinating system security and regional sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs an evaluation system of WEFE system vulnerability in the three dimensions of VSD. By comprehensively applying the vertical and horizontal gap-maximizing method, Tapio decoupling model, and social network analysis, this paper systematically reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and network correlation characteristics of the decoupling between the WEFE system vulnerability and economic resilience. The results show that: the WEFE system vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region fluctuates and decreases, but regional differences expand with significant polarization effects; economic resilience evolves nonlinearly, showing enhanced non-equilibrium but no multipolarization; the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows the decoupling characteristics of “local transition and overall vulnerability ”from 2013 to 2022, with 54.5% of cities completing the transformation from strong negative decoupling to strong decoupling, but the region as a whole remains in weak decoupling; spatial correlations exhibit club convergence, forming a high-value agglomeration belt (Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Hengshui, and Xingtai) and a low-value cluster area (Beijing, Langfang, and Qinhuangdao); the decoupling network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region demonstrates hierarchical fluctuations and efficiency instability, with geographical plate bidirectional interactions strengthening club agglomeration and forming a multi-level complex network structure.