Research on sustainable development path of energy industry in Northwest China from perspective of water-energy nexus

Based on the perspective of “ water-energy” nexus, the cause-and-effect flow diagram was constructed with Vensim PLE software to analyze the correlation between water resources and energy resources in Northwest China. Scenarios of conventional development, scenario of in-depth implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies, scenario of technological improvement of water-saving and energy-saving and scenario of improvement of energy industrial structure were set. The system dynamics model is used to simulate and compare the development trends of four indicators, GDP, water consumption per unit of energy production, energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP and energy scarcity level in 2022-2030 under different scenarios. The conclusions are as follows: based on the current development trends of the five northwestern provinces and regions, the economic level will continue to improve, and the water consumption per unit of energy production, energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, and energy scarcity level will continue to decline. Compared with the conventional development scenario, in the other scenarios, the GDP and water use efficiency of energy production in Northwest China will increase more, and the energy consumption intensity and energy scarcity level will decrease more. Among various scenarios, the implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies has the most significant improvement effect on energy scarcity level and energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, while technological improvement of water-saving and energy-saving has the most significant inhibitory effect on the water consumption per unit of energy production. The improvement of the energy industry structure can also balance the constraint effect on the water consumption per unit of energy production, energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, and energy scarcity level. Finally, a development path for the energy industry is proposed, with the deepening implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies, technological improvement of water-saving and energy-saving, and upgrading of the energy industry structure, so as to promote the sustainable development of the energy industry in Northwest China.