Response of future meteorological and hydrological drought propagation to climate change in the Yellow River Basin

To study the changes of drought characteristics in the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin in the future, it is urgent to study the characteristics and transmission process of drought, so as to provide guidance for drought early warning. In this paper, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was used to simulate the hydrological process of the Yellow River Basin in the historical period (1961-2014) and the future period (2015-2100), and the drought intensity propagation index and the drought duration propagation index were constructed based on the matching of drought events, and the changes of the drought characteristics propagation in the Yellow River Basin in the future compared with the historical period were analyzed. The conclusion shows that climate change has shortened the drought propagation time in the Yellow River Basin and in the future scenario, meteorological drought translation rate and hydrological drought sensitivity are higher than those in the historical period; thus, meteorological drought is more likely to spread to hydrological drought. The intensity of drought intensity propagation in the future period will remain basically unchanged, while the intensity of drought duration propagation will decrease significantly in the future.