Re-Evaluation of China’s Agricultural Net Carbon Sink: Current Situation, Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors

Based on the current “dual carbon” strategic goal, this study aimed to clarify the current characteristics, spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of agricultural net carbon sink, so as to provide the important support for accelerating agricultural sink increase and emission reduction.

Based on the scientific reconstruction of the index system, the carbon sink/carbon emission factor method was used to measure and analyze the current situation of China’s agricultural net carbon sink. Then the spatial autocorrelation model was used to discuss the spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Finally, the least-squares method was used to analyze the main factors affecting the change of its intensity.

From 2005 to 2022, the total amount of agricultural net carbon sink in China was in an obvious upward trend, although there were some interannual fluctuations, and its evolutionary characteristics could be roughly divided into four stages, namely, “continuous rise”, “fluctuating decline”, “rapid rise”, and “slow rise”; the intensity of agricultural net carbon sink was also in an obvious upward trend, with only a slight difference in the trajectory of the evolution, and the difference in its growth rate could be roughly categorized into four stages: “continuous rapid growth”, “slow growth”, “fluctuating ups and downs”, and “slow growth”. 2022, the amount of agricultural net carbon sink had a large interprovincial difference, with Inner Mongolia being the first and Shanghai being the last, and compared with the year of 2005, all the provinces had a significant increase. In 2022, the net carbon sink intensity of agriculture would be the highest in Henan and the lowest in Qinghai, with all provinces showing different degrees of increase compared with 2005. China’s provincial agricultural net carbon sink intensity as a whole showed obvious spatial dependence, but there was also a local spatial clustering phenomenon, more than 70% of the provinces showed obvious spatial clustering characteristics, and the number of provinces located in the high-high clustering and the low-low clustering was approaching. The structure of arable land use, urbanization level, rural residents' income level and the internal industrial structure of agriculture all had a significant impact on the intensity of agricultural net carbon sink; specifically, the higher the ratio of sown area of grain crops, or the higher the urbanization rate, or the higher the income level of rural residents, or the larger the ratio of plantation industry to animal husbandry, the higher the intensity of net carbon sink in agriculture.

The total amount and intensity of China’s agricultural net carbon sink were in a fluctuating upward trend and there were obvious inter-provincial differences. The intensity of China’s agricultural net carbon sink showed obvious spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. The intensity of the agricultural net carbon sink was affected by the structure of arable land use, the level of urbanization, the level of rural residents' income, and the structure of the internal industries of agriculture. The measures should be taken to promote the enhancement of sink and emission reductions and to promote the enhancement of agricultural net carbon sink in agriculture, such as establishing a sound policy support system for the development of low-carbon agriculture, strengthening inter-provincial exchanges and cooperation, and increasing financial support for agriculture.