Climate change trends and adaptation strategies in Southern Regions of Iraq

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah, Thi Qar, Al Muthanna, and Messan—using an integrated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 - Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)), European Community Earth-System Model (EC-Earth), and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5). Projections were generated for three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analysis, this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region. The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution, station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscaling techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs. Model calibration and validation were performed using historical climate data (1990–2020), resulting in high accuracy across all stations (R² = 0.91–0.99; RMSE = 0.19–2.78), thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections. Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures, with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability, with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season, depending on the model and location. These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity, particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning, providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.