Total capacity and spatial distribution of wind and solar power in China under the 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, the development targets and spatial distribution of renewable capacity such as wind and solar power are key to achieving the goals of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). China’s 2035 NDC target specifies that wind and solar installed capacity should strive to reach 3,600 GW, but its spatial distribution involves multiple coupled constraints—resource endowment, integration space, and energy security—and is a typical cross-domain complex decision-making problem spanning the physical and social systems. Within the cyber-physical-social system in energy (CPSSE) framework, this paper proposes a total-capacity and spatial-allocation method adaptable to different strategic orientations. At the aggregate level, the installed-capacity elastic interval is derived through the coordinated use of NDC emission constraints and the electricity supply–demand framework. At the spatial level, a “strategic weight–resource endowment–integration capacity” three-dimensional correction model is constructed, and regional division is performed based on the cross-domain coupling of the physical and social dimensions. At the engineering level, a truncation-and-redistribution algorithm is introduced to correct the theoretical allocation results under hard constraints. The case results show that the allocation coefficients of the core regions reverse under different strategic orientations and that, after being constrained by physical upper limits, the spillover increment is redistributed to other regions. The method provides a reusable quantitative decision-support tool for medium- and long-term energy planning.

Implications for Energy and Climate Management

Who: National and provincial energy-planning authorities, grid companies, and renewable developers responsible for translating the 2035 NDC target into provincial capacity quotas and project locations.

Management challenge: National targets do not indicate where capacity can actually be built; planners must reconcile strategic priorities with resource endowment, transmission capacity, and land- and sea-use limits, often without a transparent basis for comparing alternatives.

Management implication: Presenting 3,600–4,800 GW as an elastic interval and making the strategic orientation explicit gives decision-makers a reproducible way to compare plans, see which regional limits bind, and anticipate where spillover capacity will land.