A provincial-level modeling framework for integrated building stock-energy-material-carbon assessment in China

The building sector plays a pivotal role in global climate governance and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. However, most existing assessments of long-term low-carbon transitions in the building sector rely on analytical frameworks that decouple building energy use and carbon emissions from vintage-tracked building stock turnover. This disconnect limits the development of coherent and effective long-term decarbonization strategies for the sector. To address this gap, this study develops the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model, an integrated modeling framework comprising five core modules: building stock turnover, energy demand, material demand, carbon emissions, and low-carbon transition. The framework captures the coupled evolution of stock–energy–material–carbon interactions across 31 Chinese provinces (The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan province are not included due to data availability) from 2025 to 2100. Calibration results demonstrate that the model can reliably reproduce historical building vintage dynamics and end-use energy intensities. As a comprehensive quantitative analysis tool, the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model enables the exploration of province-specific and heterogeneous low-carbon transition pathways for China’s building sector by systematically linking key factors, including floor space demand projections, building stock evolution, occupant energy-use behavior, and low-carbon material strategies. The proposed modeling framework also provides a transferable methodological reference for other large emerging economies facing similar decarbonization challenges in the building sector.