IMACLIM-China-MORE: A hybrid model for analyzing greenhouse gases neutrality pathways

Designing effective carbon-neutrality policy for China requires models that capture interactions between technology-oriented energy transitions and economy-wide responses. However, most assessments use either bottom-up energy models or top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models in isolation, which limits pathway insights. We develop IMACLIM–China-MORE, an iteratively coupled hybrid model that links the TIMES-based China-MORE 2.0 energy-system optimization model with IMACLIM-CHN, a single-region, 18-sector CGE model. The two models exchange prices, energy-service demands, activity levels, and abatement schedules under harmonized accounts, and the coverage extends from CO₂ to methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. We apply the framework to three scenarios: Current Policies, CO₂ Neutrality, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Neutrality. Under CO₂ Neutrality, the power and industrial sectors deliver the largest near-term reductions, but about 1.5 GtCO₂e non-CO₂ emissions remain in 2060. Under GHG Neutrality, net-zero CO₂ is achieved by around 2055 and non-CO₂ emissions fall to about 0.8 GtCO₂e in 2060, which would need to be offset by carbon-removal options. The additional macroeconomic costs of moving from CO₂ to GHG neutrality are moderate overall, although the agriculture and food sectors face relatively larger impacts, and investment in the energy system increases by about one third. IMACLIM–China-MORE provides a transparent, policy-relevant platform to evaluate trade-offs among technology choices, macroeconomic outcomes, and multi-gas mitigation on China’s path to GHG neutrality.