Simulating and projecting agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions in China based on a bottom-up model

The formulation of quantitative national and subnational mitigation targets for China's agricultural sector has been limited by the lack of comprehensive, long-term assessments of mitigation potential. This study developed the Agricultural non-CO₂ Greenhouse gAs InveNtory (AGAIN) model to estimate emission trajectories and evaluate the mitigation potential of China’s agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the provincial level through 2060 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), current policy (CP), conventional technical potential (CTP), and maximum technical potential (MTP). Results indicated that under the BAU scenario, agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions were projected to continue rising, reaching 1,124 Mt CO₂eq by 2060. In contrast, under the CP scenario, emissions were expected to peak in 2050 and decline by 12% by 2060. Substantially greater mitigation was achieved under the CTP and MTP scenarios, in which emissions peaked before 2030, resulting in a 27%–47% reduction by 2060. At the provincial level, 16 provincial-level regions did not reach peak agricultural emissions before 2030 under the CP scenario, while only the MTP scenario ensured that all provincial-level regions met this target. These findings underscore the need for more ambitious mitigation efforts to align the agricultural sector with China’s dual-carbon goals. Notably, the consistent identification of priority regions and subsectors for mitigation across all scenarios highlights both the feasibility and the strategic value of developing region-specific agricultural mitigation policies.