The Role of Language in Shaping Climate Futures: A Frame Analysis of Carbon Governance in China and the U.S.

Given the increasingly significant role of discursive frames in shaping climate change governance, this research addresses the following question: How does policy language, through the frames it employs, mediate the relationship between institutional intent and real-world carbon outcomes? To answer this question, the study proposes an integrated Language-Policy-Outcome (LPO) framework to compare carbon governance discourse in China and the United States (California) between 2007 and 2022. Combining quantitative methods (large-scale topic modeling and network analysis) with qualitative ecolinguistic frame analysis, it examines 209 official policy documents and links discursive dynamics to CO₂ emissions through correlation analysis. By bridging linguistic framing with empirical performance, this research advances a holistic understanding of how carbon governance discourse operates as an intermediary connecting institutional behavior, epistemic culture, and environmental outcomes. Results reveal that China’s technocratic frame and California’s legalistic frame both operate largely within a weak sustainability paradigm, where short-term compliance and efficiency improvements are emphasized compared to systemic socio-ecological transformation. While both discursive systems exhibit strong linguistic and thematic coherence, their association with emission outcomes remains partial and context-dependent, suggesting that policy language acts as a mediating and conditioning factor rather than a direct causal driver in decarbonization. The analysis also identifies rebound patterns, where efficiency gains coincide with continued absolute emission growth, highlighting the complex interplay between discourse, economic dynamics and governance structures. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the value of a mixed-methods approach that combines computational scalability with interpretive depth and performance validation, contributing to a more integrative understanding of climate governance communication.