Projection of global daily CO₂ emissions in 2025

Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have rebounded rapidly and continued to grow since 2021, raising concerns that the remaining global carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C may be exhausted by 2024. This study projects global CO₂ emissions for 2025 by analyzing daily patterns and anomalies throughout the year. Using the daily activity data and/or proxies from January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2025, we estimate the emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial processes across seven global sectors. Our results indicate a slight increase (0.6%, 2σ = −1.1% to 2.2%; total 104.1 ± 1.74 Mt CO₂ per day) in global CO₂ emissions by the end of 2025. The flattening of emissions is mainly driven by reductions in China’s daily emissions (−1.2% ± 1.6%) due to a shift toward non-fossil-fuel generation in the power sector. In contrast, the emissions from other major emitters—the United States (2.7% ± 2.2%), India (0.4% ± 1.6%), and the European Union (0.9% ± 3.3%)—are expected to rise. The discrepancy between daily emissions and baseline projections suggests a structural transformation of the global energy system, which remains vulnerable to extreme weather and surging demand. Moreover, energy strategies in some countries that contradict their emission-reduction commitments may further delay the global emissions peak.