Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Vertical Structure of Industries and Divergence of Leverage Ratio

In the process of the Government keeps pushing ahead with deleveraging, the leverage ratios of SOEs and nonSOEs has diverged, and the decrease of the leverage ratios of SOEs is significantly lower than that of nonSOEs.This paper constructs a DSGE model that integrates vertical structure of industries and monetary policy uncertainty to discuss the causes of structural divergence of leverage ratios between SOEs and nonSOEs in China.The main conclusions are as follows:（1） The shock of monetary policy uncertainty is an important reason for the structural divergence of the leverage ratios of enterprises;（2） The special vertical structure of industries in China and government implicit guarantee can amplify the impact of monetary policy uncertainty shock on the leverage ratios of enterprises, and when decreasing the linkage degree of vertical structure of industries or increasing the proportion of government implicit guarantee, the further squeeze out the financing of nonSOEs, resulting in the more significant reduction of leverage ratios of nonSOEs;（3） Expectation management can restrain the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on enterprises’ leverage ratios by reasonably guiding the expectations of enterprises on monetary policy. On the basis of clarifying the causes of structural divergence of leverage ratios of Chinese enterprises, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: In the process of deleveraging, we should pay attention to strengthening the budget constraint of SOEs; Maintain the continuity of monetary policy; Correcting the ownership preference of banks’ credit allocation; Increasing the communication of Central Bank, so as to manage expectations of enterprises on the Monetary Policy.