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Research Article | Open Access

Random forests to predict survival of octogenarians with brain metastases from nonsmall-cell lung cancer

Department of Neurosurgery, Yuquan Hospital, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100040, China
Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100070, China
Department of Oncology, Guang'anmen Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100053, China
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Abstract

Background:

To create and validate nomograms for the personalized prediction of survival in octogenarians with newly diagnosed nonsmall-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with sole brain metastases (BMs).

Methods:

Random forests (RF) were applied to identify independent prognostic factors for building nomogram models. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, and calibration plots.

Results:

The area under the curve (AUC) values for overall survival at 6, 12, and 18 months in the validation cohort were 0.837, 0.867, and 0.849, respectively; the AUC values for cancer-specific survival prediction were 0.819, 0.835, and 0.818, respectively. The calibration curves visualized the accuracy of the model.

Conclusion:

The new nomograms have good predictive power for survival among octogenarians with sole BMs related to NSCLC.

Keywords

octogenarianNSCLCbrain metastasesrandom forestsnomogram

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Brain Science Advances
Volume 10 Issue 1,
March 2024
Pages 38-55
DOI: 10.26599/BSA.2024.9050021
Cite this article:
Song L, Wang Y, Li X, et al. Random forests to predict survival of octogenarians with brain metastases from nonsmall-cell lung cancer. Brain Science Advances, 2024, 10(1): 38-55. https://doi.org/10.26599/BSA.2024.9050021

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Received: 06 December 2023
Accepted: 08 January 2024
Published: 05 March 2024
© The authors 2023.

This article is published with open access at journals.sagepub.com/home/BSA

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