Cost increase of power system low carbon transition considering climate risk

Rapid renewable energy deployment driven by global decarbonization goals is accelerating worldwide. However, seasonal variability and evolving climate patterns pose great challenges to the long-term adequacy of power supply. This study focuses on the long-term climate risks associated with inadequate renewable supply. First, the climate risk is defined and quantified as the seasonal inadequacy of renewable supply. Then, the risk formulation is incorporated into the optimal planning model as a three-stage framework. Finally, a 2030 China-provincial case study is performed. The case results show that the climate-risk-aware planning scheme raises total system costs by approximately 0.5% but cuts expected load curtailment by nearly 40%. Additionally, residual climate risk is concentrated in a few coastal and southwestern provincial-level regions, primarily in winter, and in southern coastal regions in summer. The introduction of climate risk reshapes capacity portfolios, raises costs, and exposes seasonal reliability gaps in coastal areas.