Analysis of spatio-temporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions in the three provinces of northeast China and its influencing factors

Studying energy consumption and carbon emissions in the three provinces of northeast China, a key industrial region, is crucial for advancing high-quality development in the region. Based on the fitted carbon emission values of nighttime light data of 35 prefectural-level cities in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2021, the paper analyzes the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of carbon emissions and the influencing factors by using spatial autocorrelation model and the GTWR-STIRPAT combined model. The results indicate that (1) there are marked spatio-temporal variations in carbon emissions across the three northeastern provinces, exhibiting an overall "U"-shaped trend over time, and spatial distribution of high-value areas with a point-like pattern centered around provincial capitals. (2) Carbon emissions as a whole show no obvious spatial agglomeration, and the local correlation characteristics show the spatial aggregation characteristics of "low-low" agglomeration. (3) There is significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the carbon emissions across different cities, attributable to a range of influencing factors. Among these, the total population, the proportion of the secondary industry, and the per capita GDP exert a positive driving influence on the carbon emissions within the three northeastern provinces. Conversely, the urbanization rate, the aging rate of the population, and the number of patents granted have a dual impact on the carbon emissions. In response to these findings, it is recommended that policies be developed with scientifically informed planning tailored to local conditions to hasten the achievement of carbon peaking and neutrality goals, and to contribute to the construction of a beautiful China.