Spatio-temporal evolution and driving force analysis of arable land in the coal mining area of the lower Yellow River Basin: the case of Jining City, Shandong Province

Jining City of Shandong Province is located in the coal mining area of the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin, facing serious problems such as the destruction of arable land resources. Based on the land use data and socio-economic data of Jining City from 1980 to 2020, this paper explores the spatial and temporal characteristics and the driving mechanism of arable land by land use transfer matrix and principal component analysis, and predicts the future arable land area by using the gray prediction model. The results show that: (1)arable land in Jining City exhibits a typical characteristic of "more in the west, less in the east"and a continual decrease, land areas for industrial, coal mining and transportation construction are increasing.(2)From 1980 to 2020, the predominant changes to arable land in Jining City involved its conversion into construction land, grassland water bodies. Notably, from 1980 to 1990, there were significantly higher dynamics in arable land changes across counties and districts, whereas from 2000 to 2010, there were relatively minor fluctuations in arable land area.(3) Economic factors emerge as the primary driving forces behind changes in arable land, coal mining's proportion of the total industry output value and the secondary industry's share of the total output value are the principal determinants influencing arable land area. (4)Through forecasting, it is projected that the arable land area will continue to exhibit a decreasing trend from 2020 to 2035. In response, crafting arable land conservation policies should comprehensively account for economic factors, adopt tailored strategies based on local conditions, and propel the development of resource-efficient urban construction.