Forensic Paradigm Development. Part 5: LR Paradigm of Facial Similarity Score

The likelihood ratio paradigm of facial similarity score is the theory and method for interpreting the evidential significance of score finding from facial comparison. Facial similarity score likelihood ratio is the latest method of Bayesian likelihood ratio paradigm for forensic science. The likelihood ratio (LR) of facial similarity score is the ratio of the occurring probability of the facial score finding quantitatively assigned based on the probability distribution data of facial scores, under a pair of conflicting propositions that usually represent the claims of the prosecution and defense parties. The propositions typically deal with the question of whether a facial image with unknown identity collected at a crime scene comes from a suspect with known identity. The face score LR expresses the relative support direction and strength of the face score finding for the propositions of the prosecution and defense parties, providing quantitative evidence value for decision-makers to determine the disputed fact of the face source. The decision maker determines the fact of the facial source proposition based on the facial score LR opinion, or the posterior probability of the facial source proposition derived from the LR and the prior odds through Bayesian law, combined with other evidence, to exclude reasonable doubt. The likelihood ratio paradigm of facial similarity score is completely different from the traditional paradigm we are accustomed to in terms of scientific logic, opinion formation, expression, understanding, and reasoning applications. It also differs from the widely used LR paradigm of DNA feature findings, which poses new requirements and challenges for forensic examiner and decision-makers.