Forensic Paradigm Development. Part 4: Subjective LR Paradigm of Pattern Features

The subjective likelihood ratio paradigm of pattern features is the theory and method for the interpretation of evidence significance of feature findings of pattern evidence. Subjective likelihood ratio (LR) of pattern features is the probability ratio of occurrence of pattern features assigned under the two opposing propositions representing the prosecution and defense respectively, based on expert knowledge or the combination of expert knowledge and data. The proposition hierarchy for evaluating the subjective LR of pattern features includes source level and active level. Subjective LR of pattern features expresses the relative support direction and intensity of the pattern features findings for the propositions of the prosecution and defense, providing qualitative evidence value for decision makers to determine disputed factual propositions. Decision makers will determine the propositions facts based on subjective LR opinions of pattern features, or based on the posterior probabilities of the propositions derived from LR through Bayes' theorem, combined with other evidence in the case, in the way to exclude reasonable doubts. The subjective LR paradigm of pattern features differs significantly from the traditional paradigm we are accustomed to in terms of scientific logic and the formation, expression, understanding, and reasoning application of opinions, and it also differs from the objective LR paradigm of DNA feature. This presents new requirements and challenges for forensic examiner and decision-makers.