The characteristics and influencing factors of spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta Region

Under the "dual carbon goals", revealing the spatial correlation network characteristics of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta Region, holds significant theoretical value and practical significance for exploring the green and low-carbon transformation of regional socioeconomic systems. Using the IPCC assessment methodology, modified gravity model, and QAP regression method, this study conducts an analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution process of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta Region from 2010 to 2022, and explores the evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions. The results have 3 findings. ①Temporally, carbon emissions presented a continuous upward trend in the Pearl River Delta Region, with a slight decline in 2020; spatially, it showed a pattern where Shenzhen and Guangzhou were the core high-emission areas, and the eastern bank of the Pearl River was significantly higher than the western bank. The overall decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and socioeconomic development in the Pearl River Delta Region showed a weak decoupling characteristic, and since 2020, with the continuous decline in carbon emissions, it has been accelerating toward strong decoupling. ②The overall characteristics of the carbon emission spatial correlation network have gradually evolved toward being more complex and accessible, with connection lines becoming denser and developing toward multi-directionality. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are located at the center of the network, playing the role of "central actors"; other regional plates show significant graduality in the spatial association network, with obvious spatial spillover characteristics within the plates. ③Geographical proximity, economic development level, energy consumption intensity, and industrial structure have significant impacts on the spatial correlation network of regional carbon emissions. The research provides scientific basis and practical guidance for regional collaborative emission reduction, optimizing carbon balance, and promoting sustainable development.