Spatio-temporal evolution and simulation prediction of habitat quality in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China based on land use change

Land use change and its impact on habitat quality play a crucial role in the development of ecological civilization and the promotion of sustainable development in ecologically fragile regions. Taking the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China as a case, this study analyzes land use change characteristics from 1980 to 2020 using a transition matrix. It also explores the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality by combining the InVEST model with hotspot analysis and quantifies the influence of land use change on habitat quality. Furthermore, the CA-Markov model is employed to simulate and predict the habitat quality status in 2040. The research has four results. ① The main land use types in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China are grassland, cultivated land, and forestland. During the study period, significant changes in land use patterns were observed, with the northeastern region being the area of concentrated land use change. The main characteristic of land use change is the mutual conversion between cultivated land and grassland. The changes in land use are marked by a reduction in grassland, a slight increase in cultivated land, a decrease in forestland and a significant increase in built-up land. ② Habitat quality in the study area exhibits notable spatial variation, with hotspots concentrated along the southern boundary and cold spots found in the northeastern and central regions. The overall habitat quality level is relatively low, with areas of low habitat quality being the most prevalent. ③ The conversion of cultivated land to forest and unused land, as well as unused land to grassland, plays a crucial role in improving habitat quality, while the conversion of grassland to cultivated land leads to a decline in habitat quality. ④ The CA-Markov model is suitable for simulating land use in the study area. By 2040, both built-up land and unused land in the study area are expected to increase. Habitat quality in the region is predicted to decline, with low to medium habitats expanding and high quality habitat decreasing by 16, 147.30 km². Urgent protective measures are needed to enhance habitat quality. The findings provide theoretical references for the sustainable development of land resources and ecological environmental protection in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China.