The spatial-temporal pattern, trend prediction and influencing factors of market segmentation: A case study of 287 cities in China

Breaking market segmentation and speeding up the construction of a unified domestic market are not only conducive to the smooth flow of resources and factors in a wider scope, but also an important starting point for releasing the potential of domestic demand and giving full play to the unique advantages of the national super-large-scale market. Based on the consumer price index of 287 cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper constructs the market segmentation index of cities in China by using the relative price method, describes and analyzes the evolution characteristics of the spatial-temporal pattern of the national market segmentation level from a pluralistic perspective, and empirically tests the factors affecting the market segmentation level by using the spatial econometric model. The findings are as follows: ① The national market segmentation level shows a trend of fluctuation and decline, and it shows spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Specifically, the level of market segmentation in the western region has remained consistently high, while the eastern region occasionally ranks first, and the central region has consistently maintained a relatively low level of market segmentation. ②The spatial agglomeration characteristics of domestic market segmentation show a fluctuating trend of "first weakening, then strengthening, and then weakening", and it is found that the polarization trend decreased significantly compared with the first and last two years; ③ Through the trend forecast, the future market integration level of most provinces in China will be improved, and only individual provinces, such as Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi have an increasing market segmentation level; ④ According to the regression results, the market segmentation among 287 cities in China has a significant positive spatial spillover effect; ⑤ Rising per capita real income and improving public service level contribute to dismantling market segmentation barriers, whereas fiscal decentralization and foreign direct investment may, to some extent, accelerate market segmentation.