Measuring and analyzing the spatiotemporal differentiation of rural ecological carrying capacity in the Dongting lake eco-economic zone

Under the continuous guidance of the principle that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,” it is essential to deepen our understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary trajectories of rural ecological carrying capacity in the Dongting lake ecological economic zone. Such understanding holds strategic importance for safeguarding regional ecological security and formulating high-quality pathways for ecological civilization development.

Based on county-level panel data from 2012 to 2021, and supported by ArcGIS and GeoDa, this study integrates the entropy method with exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to systematically investigate the temporal evolution, spatial differentiation, and clustering characteristics of rural ecological carrying capacity in the region.

1) rural ecological carrying capacity showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2021, and the contribution of the four subsystems were ranked as follows: ecological resilience, human support capacity, resource carrying capacity, and environmental carrying capacity; 2) spatially, a distinct “low-in-the-middle and high-at-both-ends” pattern was evident, with high-value areas concentrated in the eastern and western hilly-mountainous zones, and low-value areas clustered in urban centers and densely populated rural settlements; 3) from 2012 to 2021, the number of high-capacity counties increased, while low-capacity counties declined, indicating steady regional improvement; 4) significant positive spatial autocorrelation was observed across the period, except for an anomaly in 2015; H-H clusters remained stable, L-L clusters appeared intermittently, and L-H and H-L types occurred only sporadically.

Although the rural ecological carrying capacity of the Dongting lake ecological economic zone continued to improve, its overall level remained relatively low, with pronounced inter-county disparities and marked spatial imbalance. We should strengthen regional ecological coordination and inter-county resource complementarity, enhance environmental carrying capacity and ecological resilience, advance non-point source pollution control, improve ecological infrastructure, and implement targeted restoration in weak areas. Meanwhile, we will refine zonal enhancement strategies and evaluation frameworks to amplify the ecological spillover effects of high-value areas, thereby promoting sustained improvements in rural ecological carrying capacity and coordinated ecological-economic-social development.