Construction of the green infrastructure network in Dali City based on the future land use simulation structure

With continuous urbanization and the fragmentation of green spaces impacting human well-being, the development of Green Infrastructure (GI) networks is essential for future urban planning.

Taking Dali City as a case study, the land use simulation prediction for 2032 is based on the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. This model integrates land use data from the years 2002, 2012, and 2022 to provide a basis for the construction of an ecological network in subsequent stages. Building on this data, Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, and Circuit Theory are employed to identify ecological sources and corridors. Furthermore, a GI network is constructed, and its degree of optimization is assessed by comparing the network structure to that of the GI network in 2022.

The results showed that: 1) The forest area was the largest among the land use types in Dali City, and it had a good ecological background. Under the natural development simulation, the forest area will increase in 2032, the grassland and water area will be the same as in 2022; 2) A total of 10 ecological sources were identified, with Erhai lake and Cangshan mountain as the main ecological sources. A total of 21 potential ecological corridors have been identified, primarily situated within the Cangshan, Erhai, and eastern forest regions. In contrast, the western area, which includes the Lancang river basin and the Hainan mountain landscape, displays considerable fragmentation; 3) The optimized GI network α, β and γ index values were 0.23, 1.4 and 0.49, respectively, up 0.20, 0.49 and 0.16.

The study focuses on land use simulation for the construction of a GI network in Dali City by 2032. Its aim is to support the city's future sustainable development, provide a theoretical for urban planning in Dali City, enhance the protection of GI and ecological security, and offer an improved research framework for the sustainable expansion of other highland lake cities.