Multi-scenario simulation of carbon sequestration capacity of typical forests in Guangxi based on system dynamics modeling

Scientific assessment and prediction of regional forest carbon sequestration capacity are crucial for achieving the “Dual carbon” goals. This study aims to simulate the future carbon sequestration dynamics of typical forests in Guangxi under different management strategies, thereby providing a reference for exploring pathways to enhance forest carbon sink capacity.

Based on System Dynamics (SD) theory, a system simulation model for the carbon sequestration capacity of typical forests in Guangxi was developed to predict the composition of forest carbon stocks, carbon sequestration amount, and sequestration capacity from 2020 to 2060. By adjusting key indicators such as consumption rate, main felling age, and growth rate, three forest management scenarios were established: priority protection (Scenario 1), Structural Adjustment (Scenario 2), and Integrated Regulation (Scenario 3) The changes in forest carbon sequestration capacity under each scenario were analyzed.

1) From 2020 to 2060, the stand volume of typical forests in Guangxi increased significantly, with the unit area stock volume rising by 50.57%, indicating a substantial improvement in forest quality; 2) The forest carbon sequestration capacity further improved; by the end of the forecast period, carbon stocks and carbon sequestration amount increased by 59.31% and 62.23%, respectively, compared to the baseline year. Commercial forests demonstrated greater advantages in both carbon sequestration amount and rate compared to non-commercial forests. 3) The carbon sequestration capacity under all scenarios showed an increasing trend. Scenario 3 (Integrated Regulation) achieved the highest growth rate, with the average annual carbon sequestration during the forecast period being 0.67 TgC/a and 5.32 TgC/a higher than that of Scenario 1 (Priority protection) and Scenario 2 (Structural adjustment), respectively.

The SD model effectively simulated and predicted the carbon sequestration capacity and its evolution under different scenarios for typical forests in Guangxi. The results indicate that the carbon sequestration capacity of these forests will continue to increase significantly from 2020 to 2060, possessing great potential. Implementing scientific management measures to enhance the growth rate of young and middle-aged forests can effectively promote forest carbon sequestration and sink enhancement. This study provides theoretical and technical support for formulating differentiated forest management strategies and regional “carbon neutrality” pathways.