Time uncertainty analysis on cyclic operation procedures of carrier aircraft based on MC-GERT

The completion time of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft usually presents significant uncertainty, which directly affects the development of subsequent mission plans for carrier aircraft by carrier mission planners. To determine the distribution pattern of the completion time of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft and assist planners in tracking the progress of carrier aircraft mission execution, the time uncertainty analysis method for cyclic operations of carrier aircraft was proposed. Firstly, based on the operation process from dispatching to recycling, the stochastic network model of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft was established. Secondly, a graphic evaluation and review technique network with Laplace transform as the transfer function was proposed, and the characteristics of its transfer function were studied. It was proven that the stochastic netw ork model of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft could be solved by utilizing the signal flow graph theory. In addition, the Monte Carlo graphical evaluation and review technique（MC-GERT） method was introduced to simplify the parallel branches with the “AND” relationship in the stochastic network and improve the calculation efficiency of the network solution. By the proposed graphic evaluation and review technique method combined with Monte Carlo, finally, the distribution characteristics of the completion time of the pre-flight preparations, sortie and departure, single wave departure operation, and the periodic operation under the cyclic mode of carrier aircraft were analyzed respectively, which verified the feasibility of the proposed analysis method. The results show that the proposed method can be applied to the online analysis of the planning scheme of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft and can provide certain scheme implementation expectations for relevant departments of carrier aircraft operation planning.