Safety risk traceability and quantification of key factors in chemical enterprises based on FTA-BN-BTA

In order to accurately identify the key factors influencing the safety risks in chemical enterprises and quantitatively evaluate the impact of these key factors on the safety risks, 551 typical case investigation reports of safety production accidents in national chemical enterprises over the past 10 years were analyzed, and 15 key factors affecting safety production risks were extracted. By combining fault tree analysis (FTA), Bayesian network (BN) and bow-tie analysis (BTA), a risk analysis framework system integrating multiple methods (FTA-BN-BTA) was constructed, and a safety risk traceability model was established. This model was employed to conduct an empirical analysis of the safety accidents in a domestic chemical enterprise. The results show that four key factors, namely non-standard hot work operations, non-standard confined space operations, untimely emergency response, and leakage from process equipment, have the greatest impact on production safety in this chemical enterprise. The results are consistent with the actual situation in the chemical enterprise. The FTA-BN-BTA safety risk traceability model integrates the advantages of the three analytical methods. The resulting three-in-one enterprise safety risk management closed-loop model of “causal analysis-probability calculation-barrier optimization” can address the deficiencies of traditional methods in the dimension of “structure-probability-control”. These results can provide theoretical guidance for the classification and control of safety risks, as well as the governance of safety hazards, in other chemical enterprises.