Scenario Analysis of Data Centers in China Under Carbon Neutrality Target

The low-carbon transformation of data centers is highly significant for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study compared and analyzed the overall situation of data centers in China. Three variables—energy efficiency improvement rate, proportion of non-fossil energy—and negative emission technology intensity were introduced based on the CO₂ emission and intensity targets of China in key years, and the total CO₂ emissions of the data centers were projected via scenario analysis. The results demonstrated that the power consumption of the data centers increased gradually; the carbon emissions first increased and then decreased, and the power usage effectiveness (PUE) of the data centers decreased gradually. The carbon peak time of the three scenarios is 2030, and the expected times to achieve carbon neutrality are 2059, 2057, and 2055 in the three scenarios. In light of the goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the data center industry should further improve the energy efficiency utilization rate, increase the proportion of non-fossil energy, strengthen the technological innovation of carbon capture and storage, and enhance the level of carbon sinks.