Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Agricultural Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Emissions in Guangdong Province

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions and aquatic eutrophication formed by nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment are the key issues that need to be solved urgently in the field of ecological environment in China. The agricultural sector is one of the main sources of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus emissions, and analyzing their characteristics and driving forces is of great significance to the implementation of China's pollution reduction and carbon reduction strategy. Based on the cross-sectional data of the agricultural sector in Guangdong province, the carbon emission model, nitrogen and phosphorus runoff model, and the LMDI driver model of agricultural sources in Guangdong province are constructed to analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in each agricultural source sector at the provincial and county levels. The results showed that: (1) the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from county agricultural sources in Guangdong province had significant spatial differences, and had the characteristics of concentration, correlation and homology in space; (2) From 1990 to 2021, the carbon and nitrogen emissions from agricultural sources showed heterogeneous changes, carbon emissions increased, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions decreased, and the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio showed an upward trend; (3) Per capita primary industry added value and unit primary industry added value emissions were the largest driving forces affecting the rise and decrease of agricultural carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in Guangdong province, respectively, and the ranking was different among different elements, indicating that there were differences in the driving factors controlling the change of agricultural source carbon and nitrogen emissions. The results of this study will provide decision-making support for the identification and collaborative regulation of key source areas of agricultural source carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions in Guangdong province.