Evolutionary characteristics, driving logic, and system optimization of the scaled agribusiness operation policies in China

Scale agribusiness operation has been one of the most important pathways to advance agricultural and rural modernization. This study aims to explore the evolution patterns, dynamic logic, and system optimization of scale agribusiness operations in China. Data was collected from the 1 130 national documents from 1984 to 2024. Text analysis was conducted using natural language processing. The “goals–tools” perspective was integrated with historical institutionalism. A composite framework was constructed to examine stage-specific characteristics, driving logic, and structural composition of policy evolution in scale agribusiness operations. Optimization strategies were finally proposed for the future. The results show that: 1) Three stages were divided during policy evolution: initial exploration, nationwide implementation, and optimization and refinement. Policy goals shifted from localized pilots under stable land-contract relations to nationwide promotion and system construction, and later to policy optimization around smallholder modernization and contracted-land fragmentation governance. 2) Policy evolution was attributed to the combined effects of institutional contexts, ideas, and individuals. A dynamic logic was characterized by institutional lock-in under the path dependence of the household contract responsibility, critical breakthroughs under the impacts of globalization and urbanization, and gradual adaptation under the practical constraints of a “large country with smallholder farming”. 3) The current policy system consisted of three modules—farmland transfer, service linkage, and land consolidation—and four supporting modules—industrialized operation, talent cultivation, fiscal and financial support, as well as technological innovation. It was necessary to integrate engineering consolidation with the land rights for the governance of farmland fragmentation. Socialized service systems and agricultural machinery support should be strengthened to realize the scale benefits of contiguous farmland operations. Policy tools were then allocated in a differentiated manner, according to regional resource endowments and engineering conditions. Diversified pathways can be expected for scale agribusiness operations. According to the long-term texts, the policy evolution patterns of scale agribusiness can provide a strong reference to promote agricultural modernization in the background of a “large country with smallholder farming”.