Analysis of the mechanism for the resourceful utilization of crop straw based on system dynamics

To advance the green transformation of agriculture and sustainable rural development, this article addresses the pressing needs of Jilin Province—a major grain-producing region in China—where abundant crop straw resources and their management practices directly impact regional environmental governance, soil conservation, and the development of agricultural circular economies, this study takes Jilin Province as the research object and constructs a system dynamics model encompassing multiple subsystems such as planting, collection, utilization, benefits, and policies. It systematically analyzed the resource conversion dynamics of straw across the “five utilization pathways” of fertilization (such as returning nutrients to fields) , energy conversion (such as biomass power generation and solidified fuel production), feed conversion (such as returning nutrients through livestock digestion), substrate conversion (such as cultivating edible fungi), and raw material conversion (such as industrial paper making and board manufacturing) . Through simulations and comparisons of four typical development scenarios (base case S0, enhanced fiscal incentives scenario S1, coordinated industrial development scenario S2, technology-driven optimization scenario S3) from 2015 to 2030, the results show: 1) Under the baseline scenario, the total utilization of straw will increase to 89.354 5 million tons by 2030, with a steady improvement in resource utilization efficiency; 2) In terms of total revenue, it is expected to reach 1.201 0 billion yuan by 2030, the expansion of energy and feed stock utilization pathways is the primary driver of revenue growth; 3) Energy utilization volume will grow significantly, from 16.420 0 million tons in 2015 to 21.466 1 million tons in 2030, with policy-driven electricity price subsidies and storage efficiency being the key drivers; 4) The raw material utilization pathway guided by policy also shows strong growth momentum, with an expected volume of 29.243 0 million tons by 2030. The results of scenario simulations indicate that the combined scenario S3 ("Policy Intensification + Technological Breakthrough") performs optimally in terms of enhancing straw comprehensive utilization volume and benefits, making it an important direction for achieving high-quality resource utilization path optimization. In this scenario, policy support (such as storage subsidies and tax incentives) and technological innovation create synergistic effects (such as fermentation processes and high-efficiency conversion equipment), not only increase the off-field utilization rate of crop residues but also achieve resource value enhancement through industrial chain extension. This study provides theoretical support and decision-making basis for local governments to formulate straw resource utilization strategies. Future efforts should focus on strengthening policy guidance to reduce operational costs for market entities while increasing investment in research and development on technology to drive breakthroughs in high-value straw utilization. Additionally, establishing an eco-compensation mechanism oriented toward green and low-carbon principles will facilitate the transition of straw utilization from pollution control to quality enhancement, ultimately contributing to the elevation of agricultural ecological value and the optimization of circular economy efficiency.