Consolidation potential and sequence of recoverable cultivated land in the context of cultivated land occupation-reclamation reform

Cultivated land resources are the core elements for ensuring food security, economic development and social stability. In June 2024, the "Food Security Guarantee Law of the People's Republic of China" stipulated that the system of balancing occupation and compensation would be expanded from only targeting non-agricultural construction occupation of cultivated land to covering various situations where cultivated land is occupied, such as non-agricultural construction and agricultural structure adjustment. A new principle has also been established for the sources of supplementary cultivated land, which is to prioritize the restoration of high-quality cultivated land and take the reclamation of new cultivated land as a secondary option. Against this backdrop, the arable land within agricultural land that has been "non-grain" but still has the potential for restoration has become an important source for supplementing high-quality arable land. Scientifically evaluating the potential for restoring cultivated land consolidation and accurately identifying the timing for such restoration are of great significance for implementing the reform of the farmland occupation-reclamation balance system. Taking Zengcheng District of Guangzhou as an example, this study constructed the evaluation index system of the consolidation potential of recoverable cultivated land from the four dimensions of agricultural production suitability, agglomeration and connectivity, economic conditions and social will, calculated the value of each index through ArcGIS spatial analysis technology, and comprehensively evaluated the consolidation potential of recoverable cultivated land in Zengcheng district. In addition, the single class support vector machine is used to simulate the urgency of land consolidation, and the influence factors such as patch area and slope are selected. The restored land converted to cultivated land in the previous year is used as the training sample to simulate the urgency of consolidation of the current recoverable cultivated land resources. Finally, based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis coupling consolidation potential and urgency, the consolidation sequence of recoverable cultivated land is scientifically identified. The results show that: 1) the total area of recoverable cultivated land resources in Zengcheng district is 49.12 km², and the area of high potential plots is 9.87 km². The overall consolidation potential level of recoverable cultivated land is general, and the high potential plots only account for 20.09% of the total evaluation area; 2) The area of urgent consolidation in Zengcheng district is 22.27 km², accounting for 45.33% of the total area of recoverable arable land. The area of less urgent consolidation is 26.85 km², accounting for 54.67% of the total area. The more urgent plots are mainly distributed in the middle and southeast of Zengcheng district; 3) It is identified that the consolidation sequence of recoverable cultivated land resources in Zengcheng district is divided into short-term recoverable land, medium-term recoverable land and long-term recoverable land, with an area of 6.69 km², 8.22 km² and 34.21 km² respectively. The short-term and medium-term recoverable land only accounts for 30.37% of the total assessed area, and the long-term recoverable land only accounts for 69.63% of the total assessed area. This study quantitatively identifies the consolidation potential and sequence of the recoverable cultivated land plots, which can provide a reference for the promotion, implementation and adjustment of the cultivated land occupation-reclamation reform in Zengcheng district and other rapid urbanization areas.