Carbon storage comparison of ‘production-living-ecological space’ in Karst and non-Karst areas based on the InVEST-FLUS model

Investigating the transformation of the ‘production-living-ecological Space’ and the changes in carbon storage is of great significance for regional ecological protection and the achievement of the ‘dual carbon’ goals. Using the karst and non-karst area of Chongqing as the research areas, and based on the dynamic degree of the ‘production-living-ecological Space’, transfer matrix, InVEST model, and FLUS model, this study identifies the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and carbon storage transformation of the ‘production-living-ecological Space’ and predicts the carbon storage values under different future development scenarios. The results indicate that: 1) Karst area is dominated by ecological space, with the most extensive forested ecological space gradually increasing; non-karst area is dominated by production space, where the most extensive agricultural production space is slowly shrinking. The transformation between forested ecological space and agricultural production space with other types of spaces is the primary mode of ‘production-living-ecological’ space transformation. 2) During the study period, changes in the area of ‘production-living-ecological’ space affected its carbon storage values. Karst area showed an increasing trend in carbon storage, with the forested ecological space accounting for more than 58.94% of the carbon storage. Non-karst area exhibited a slow decrease in carbon storage, with the agricultural production space having the highest carbon storage (321.53～332.47×10⁴ tons). The carbon storage of living space showed a slow increasing trend, with a higher rate of increase in non-karst area than in karst area. 3) Apart from the natural development scenario, carbon storage values would further increase under the two scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the karst area’s forested ecological space would have the highest carbon storage; under the farmland protection scenario, the non-karst area’s agricultural production space would have the largest carbon storage. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for improving the regional ecological environment, optimizing the layout of national land and space, and enhancing regional carbon storage capacity.