Kriging-based aerodynamic/aerothermal surrogate models and aerothermoelastic analysis of TPS panel

In high-speed aerodynamic and aerothermal calculations, traditional engineering algorithms and numerical approaches for high-speed aerodynamic and aerothermal calculations face a trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. To overcome the limitations of traditional aerodynamic and aerothermal calculation methods, aerodynamic and aerothermal surrogate models were developed in this study using the Kriging method. Aiming to achieve rapid prediction of aerodynamic forces and aerodynamic heating, balance accuracy and efficiency, eliminate the contradictions among traditional methods, and enable fast aerothermoelastic analysis of the TPS panel mounted on a typical high-speed vehicle. Eventually, the aerodynamic and aerothermal surrogate models could provide new theoretical foundations and approaches for the rapid and accurate prediction of aerodynamic and aerothermal loads, as well as for fast aerothermoelastic analysis.

The aerodynamic and aerothermal surrogate models were established using the Kriging method. Meanwhile, a genetic algorithm was employed to optimize the model parameters during the development of the aerothermal surrogate model. The finite element method was used for structural dynamic analysis, in which thermal stress and temperature-dependent material degradation were taken into account, and the heat conduction code was developed based on the finite difference method, forming the computational framework for the aerothermoelastic analysis of the TPS panel.

Using the aerodynamic and aerothermal surrogate models developed in this study, the prediction efficiency was improved by four orders of magnitude, with a certain degree of generalization capability, leading to fast aerothermoelastic analysis of the TPS panel. Compared to aerodynamic surrogate modeling, constructing a surrogate model for aerodynamic heating requires more samples and higher methodological cost. Regarding the aerothermoelastic response characteristics of the TPS panel, the in-plane thermal stress and the reduction in material stiffness induced by aerodynamic heating are the main factors contributing to instability of the panel in high-speed flows. As the internal temperature of the panel increases, the amplitude of the aerothermoelastic response gradually grows, typically exhibiting an evolution from simple to complex and then back to simple response patterns.

The Kriging-based aerodynamic and thermal surrogate models developed in this study effectively compensated for the lack of accuracy in engineering algorithms in predicting aerodynamic and aerothermal loads while retaining their high computational efficiency, thereby significantly improving overall performance. This method provided a practical approach for the rapid and accurate calculation of unsteady aerodynamic forces and aerodynamic heating, offering crucial theoretical support for accurate load prediction, thermal protection structure design, and flight safety assessment of high-speed vehicles.