Open Access
Issue
Published:
26 April 2020
Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances:a NFI-based scenario analysis
),
Download citation
384
Views
1
Downloads
29
Crossref
N/A
WoS
28
Scopus
0
CSCD
Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.
The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.
The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: > -11%, beetle: > -37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.
By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
menu
Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances:a NFI-based scenario analysis
),
Abstract
Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.
The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.
The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: > -11%, beetle: > -37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.
By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
References(102)
Albrecht A, Hanewinkel M, Bauhus J, Kohnle U (2012) How does silviculture affect storm damage in forests of South-Western Germany? Results from empirical modeling based on long-term observations. Eur J For Res 131:229–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0432-x
Albrich K, Rammer W, Thom D, Seidl R (2018) Trade-offs between temporal stability and level of forest ecosystem services provisioning under climate change. Ecol Appl 28:1884–1896. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1785
Berger F, Dorren LKA (2007) Principles of the tool Rockfor.net for quantifying the rockfall hazard below a protection forest. Schweiz Z Für Forstwes 158:157–165. https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2007.0157
Blattert C, Lemm R, Thees O, Lexer MJ, Hanewinkel M (2017) Management of ecosystem services in mountain forests: review of indicators and value functions for model based multi-criteria decision analysis. Ecol Indic 79:391–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.04.025
Bouget C, Duelli P (2004) The effects of windthrow on forest insect communities: a literature review. Biol Conserv 118:281–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2003.09.009
Bouget C, Parmain G, Gilg O, Nobelcourt T, Nusillard B, Paillet Y, Pernot C, Larrieu L, Gosselin F (2014) Does a set-aside conservation strategy help the restoration of old-growth forest attributes and recolonization by saproxylic beetles? Anim Conserv 17:342–353. https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.12101
Brändli UB, Abegg M (2009) Ergebnisse des dritten Landesforstinventars LFI3 - Der Schweizer Wald wird immer natürlicher. Wald Holz 09:27–29
Bugmann H, Cordonnier T, Truhetz H, Lexer MJ (2017) Impacts of business-as-usual management on ecosystem services in European mountain ranges under climate change. Reg Environ Chang 17:3–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1074-4
Cantarello E, Newton AC, Martin PA, Evans PM, Gosal A, Lucash MS (2017) Quantifying resilience of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape. Ecol Evol 7:9661–9675. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3491
Conner LG, Bunnell MC, Gill RA (2014) Forest diversity as a factor influencing Engelmann spruce resistance to beetle outbreaks. Can J For Res 44:1369–1375. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2014-0236
Cordonnier T, Courbaud B, Berger F, Franc A (2008) Permanence of resilience and protection efficiency in mountain Norway spruce forest stands: a simulation study. For Ecol Manag 256:347–354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.04.028
DeRose RJ, Long JN (2014) Resistance and resilience: a conceptual framework for silviculture. For Sci 60:1205–1212
Dobbertin M (2002) Influence of stand structure and site factors on wind damage comparing the storms Vivian and Lothar. For Snow Landsc Res 77:187–205
Dorren L, Berger F, Frehner M, Huber M, Kühne K, Métral R, Sandri A, Schwitter R, Thormann J-J, Wasser B (2015) Das neue NaiS-Anforderungsprofil Steinschlag. Schweiz Z Forstwes 166:16–23. https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2015.0016
Elkin C, Gutiérrez AG, Leuzinger S, Manusch C, Temperli C, Rasche L, Bugmann H (2013) A 2℃ warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps. Glob Chang Biol 19:1827–1840. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12156
Fuhr M, Bourrier F, Cordonnier T (2015) Protection against rockfall along a maturity gradient in mountain forests. For Ecol Manag 354:224–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.012
Gardiner BA, Quine CP (2000) Management of forests to reduce the risk of abiotic damage — a review with particular reference to the effects of strong winds. For Ecol Manag 135:261–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00285-1
Ghimire B, Williams CA, Collatz GJ, Vanderhoof M, Rogan J, Kulakowski D, Masek J (2015) Large carbon release legacy from bark beetle outbreaks across Western United States. Glob Chang Biol 21:3087–3101. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12933
Gruber S, Haeberli W (2007) Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 112:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JF000547
Gustafson EJ, Zollner PA, Sturtevant BR, He HS, Mladenoff DJ (2004) Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin, USA. Landsc Ecol 19:327–341. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:LAND.0000030431.12912.7f
Gutsch M, Lasch-Born P, Kollas C, Suckow F, Reyer CPO (2018) Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany's forests under climate change. Environ Res Lett 13:045012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab4e5
Hilmers T, Friess N, Bässler C, Heurich M, Brandl R, Pretzsch H, Seidl R, Müller J (2018) Biodiversity along temperate forest succession. J Appl Ecol 55:2756–2766. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13238
Hood SM, Baker S, Sala A (2016) Fortifying the forest: thinning and burning increase resistance to a bark beetle outbreak and promote forest resilience. Ecol Appl 26:1984–2000. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1363
Huang S, Ramirez C, McElhaney M, Evans K (2018) F3: simulating spatiotemporal forest change from field inventory, remote sensing, growth modeling, and management actions. For Ecol Manag 415–416:26–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.02.026
Irauschek F, Rammer W, Lexer MJ (2017) Can current management maintain forest landscape multifunctionality in the Eastern Alps in Austria under climate change? Reg Environ Chang 17:33–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0908-9
Jactel H, Nicoll B, Branco M, Gonzalez-Olabarria JR, Grodzki W, Långström B, Moreira F, Netherer S, Orazio C, Piou D, Santos H, Schelhaas MJ, Tojic K, Vodde F (2009) The influences of forest stand management on biotic and abiotic risks of damage. Ann For Sci 66:701. https://doi.org/10.1051/forest/2009054
Jandl R, Ledermann T, Kindermann G, Freudenschuss A, Gschwantner T, Weiss P (2018) Strategies for climate-smart forest management in Austria. Forests 9:592. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100592
Krumm F, Kulakowski D, Spiecker H, Duc P, Bebi P (2011) Stand development of Norway spruce dominated subalpine forests of the Swiss Alps. For Ecol Manag 262:620–628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.04.030
Lachat T, Brang P, Bolliger M, Bollmann K, Brändli U, Bütler R, Herrmann S, Schneider O, Wermelinger B (2014) Totholz im Wald. Entstehung, Bedeutung und Förderung. Merkbl Für Prax Eidg Forschungsanstalt Für Wald Schnee Landsch WSL Birmensdorf 52:12
Lassauce A, Paillet Y, Jactel H, Bouget C (2011) Deadwood as a surrogate for forest biodiversity: meta-analysis of correlations between deadwood volume and species richness of saproxylic organisms. Ecol Indic 11:1027–1039. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.02.004
Lehnert LW, Bässler C, Brandl R, Burton PJ, Müller J (2013) Conservation value of forests attacked by bark beetles: highest number of indicator species is found in early successional stages. J Nat Conserv 21:97–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2012.11.003
Lexer MJ, Seidl R (2009) Addressing biodiversity in a stakeholder-driven climate change vulnerability assessment of forest management. For Ecol Manag 258:S158–S167
Loisel P (2014) Impact of storm risk on Faustmann rotation. For Policy Econ 38:191–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2013.08.002
Losey S, Wehrli A (2013) Schutzwald in der Schweiz: Vom Projekt SilvaProtect-CH zum harmonisierten Schutzwald. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Bern
Mackensen J, Bauhus J, Webber E (2003) Decomposition rates of coarse woody debris – a review with particular emphasis on Australian tree species. Aust J Bot 51:27–37
Maroschek M, Rammer W, Lexer MJ (2014) Using a novel assessment framework to evaluate protective functions and timber production in Austrian mountain forests under climate change. Reg Environ Chang 15:1543–1555. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0691-z
Mayer P, Brang P, Dobbertin M, Hallenbarter D, Renaud J-P, Walthert L, Zimmermann S (2005) Forest storm damage is more frequent on acidic soils. Ann For Sci 62:9. https://doi.org/10.1051/forest:2005025
Mikoláš M, Svitok M, Tejkal M, Leitão PJ, Morrissey RC, Svoboda M, Seedre M, Fontaine JB (2015) Evaluating forest management intensity on an umbrella species: capercaillie persistence in Central Europe. For Ecol Manag 354:26–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.07.001
Mikoláš M, Svitok M, Bollmann K, Reif J, Bače R, Janda P, Trotsiuk V, Čada V, Vítková L, Teodosiu M, Coppes J, Schurman JS, Morrissey RC, Mrhalová H, Svoboda M (2017) Mixed-severity natural disturbances promote the occurrence of an endangered umbrella species in primary forests. For Ecol Manag 405:210–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.09.006
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC
Mina M, Bugmann H, Cordonnier T, Irauschek F, Klopcic M, Pardos M, Cailleret M (2017a) Future ecosystem services from European mountain forests under climate change. J Appl Ecol 54:389–401. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12772
Mina M, Huber MO, Forrester DI, Thürig E, Rohner B (2017b) Multiple factors modulate tree growth complementarity in Central European mixed forests. J Ecol 106:1106–1119. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12846
Morin X, Fahse L, de Mazancourt C, Scherer-Lorenzen M, Bugmann H (2014) Temporal stability in forest productivity increases with tree diversity due to asynchrony in species dynamics. Ecol Lett 17:1526–1535. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12357
Oliver TH, Heard MS, Isaac NJB, Roy DB, Procter D, Eigenbrod F, Freckleton R, Hector A, Orme CD, Petchey OL, Proença V, Raffaelli D, Suttle KB, Mace GM, Martín-López B, Woodcock BA, Bullock JM (2015) Biodiversity and resilience of ecosystem functions. Trends Ecol Evol 30:673–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2015.08.009
Peltola H, Ikonen V-P, Gregow H, Strandman H, Kilpeläinen A, Venäläinen A, Kellomäki S (2010) Impacts of climate change on timber production and regional risks of wind-induced damage to forests in Finland. For Ecol Manag 260:833–845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.06.001
Perzl F (2006) Die Buche- eine Baumart des Objektschutzwaldes. BFW Praxisinformation 12:29–31
Rammig A, Fahse L, Bebi P, Bugmann H (2007) Wind disturbance in mountain forests: simulating the impact of management strategies, seed supply, and ungulate browsing on forest succession. For Ecol Manag 242:142–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.01.036
Rohner B, Waldner P, Lischke H, Ferretti M, Thürig E (2018) Predicting individual-tree growth of central European tree species as a function of site, stand, management, nutrient, and climate effects. Eur J For Res 137:29–44. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1087-7
Rosenvald R, Lõhmus A, Kraut A, Remm L (2011) Bird communities in hemiboreal old-growth forests: the roles of food supply, stand structure, and site type. For Ecol Manag 262:1541–1550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.07.002
Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Schuck A (2003) Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Glob Chang Biol 9:1620–1633. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00684.x
Schmucki E, Marty C, Fierz C, Weingartner R, Lehning M (2017) Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices. Theor Appl Climatol 127:875–889. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1676-7
Schuler LJ, Bugmann H, Snell RS (2016) From monocultures to mixed-species forests: is tree diversity key for providing ecosystem services at the landscape scale? Landsc Ecol 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0422-6
Seidl R, Baier P, Rammer W, Schopf A, Lexer MJ (2007) Modelling tree mortality by bark beetle infestation in Norway spruce forests. Ecol Model 206:383–399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.002
Seidl R, Rammer W, Jäger D, Lexer MJ (2008) Impact of bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration in different management strategies under climate change. For Ecol Manag 256:209–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.04.002
Seidl R, Schelhaas M-J, Lexer MJ (2011) Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe. Glob Chang Biol 17:2842–2852. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02452.x
Seidl R, Schelhaas M-J, Rammer W, Verkerk PJ (2014) Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage. Nat Clim Chang 4:806–810. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2318
Stadelmann G, Herold A, Didion M, Vidondo B, Gomez A, Thürig E (2016) Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien. Schweiz Z Forstwes 167:152–161. https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2016.0152
Stadelmann G, Temperli C, Rohner B, Didion M, Herold A, Rösler E, Thürig E (2019) Presenting MASSIMO: a management scenario simulation model to project growth, harvests and carbon dynamics of Swiss forests. Forests 10:94. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10020094
Svoboda M, Pouska V (2008) Structure of a central-European mountain spruce old-growth forest with respect to historical development. For Ecol Manag 255:2177–2188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.12.031
Taverna R, Gautschi M, Hofer P (2016) Das nachhaltig verfügbare Holznutzungspotenzial im Schweizer Wald. Schweiz Z Forstwes 167:162–171. https://doi.org/10.3188/szf.2016.0162
Temperli C, Bugmann H, Elkin C (2012) Adaptive management for competing forest goods and services under climate change. Ecol Appl 22:2065–2077. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-0210.1
Temperli C, Bugmann H, Elkin C (2013) Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach. Ecol Monogr 83:383–402. https://doi.org/10.1890/12-1503.1
Temperli C, Stadelmann G, Thürig E, Brang P (2017a) Silvicultural strategies for increased timber harvesting in a Central European mountain landscape. Eur J For Res 136:493–509. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1048-1
Temperli C, Stadelmann G, Thürig E, Brang P (2017b) Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints. Eur J For Res 136:711–725. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-017-1067-y
Thom D, Seidl R (2016) Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests. Biol Rev 91:760–781. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12193
Thom D, Rammer W, Seidl R (2017) Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions. Glob Chang Biol 23:269–282. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13506
Thürig E, Kaufmann E (2010) Increasing carbon sinks through forest management: a model-based comparison for Switzerland with its Eastern Plateau and Eastern Alps. Eur J For Res 129:563–572. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0354-7
Thürig E, Kaufmann E, Frisullo R, Bugmann H (2005a) Evaluation of the growth function of an empirical forest scenario model. For Ecol Manag 204:53–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2004.07.070
Thürig E, Palosuo T, Bucher J, Kaufmann E (2005b) The impact of windthrow on carbon sequestration in Switzerland: a model-based assessment. For Ecol Manag 210:337–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.02.030
Traub B, Meile R, Speich S, Rösler E (2017) The data storage and analysis system of the Swiss National Forest Inventory. Comput Electron Agric 132:97–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2016.11.016
Vacchiano G, Derose RJ, Shaw JD, Svoboda M, Motta R (2013) A density management diagram for Norway spruce in the temperate European montane region. Eur J For Res 132:535–549. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-013-0694-1
Valinger E, Fridman J (2011) Factors affecting the probability of windthrow at stand level as a result of Gudrun winter storm in southern Sweden. For Ecol Manag 262:398–403. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.04.004
Winter S, Möller GC (2008) Microhabitats in lowland beech forests as monitoring tool for nature conservation. For Ecol Manag 255:1251–1261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2007.10.029
Yachi S, Loreau M (1999) Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: the insurance hypothesis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 96:1463–1468
Yousefpour R, Hanewinkel M (2014) Balancing decisions for adaptive and multipurpose conversion of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. karst) monocultures in the Black Forest area of Germany. For Sci 60:73–84. https://doi.org/10.5849/forsci.11-125
Yousefpour R, Temperli C, Jacobsen JB, Thorsen BJ, Meilby H, Lexer MJ, Lindner M, Bugmann H, Borges JG, Palma JHN, Ray D, Zimmermann NE, Delzon S, Kremer A, Kramer K, Reyer CPO, Lasch-Born P, Garcia-Gonzalo J, Hanewinkel M (2017) A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change. Ecol Soc. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09614-220440
Yousefpour R, Augustynczik ALD, Reyer CPO, Lasch-Born P, Suckow F, Hanewinkel M (2018) Realizing mitigation efficiency of European commercial forests by climate smart forestry. Sci Rep 8:345. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18778-w
Zell J, Rohner B, Thürig E, Stadelmann G (2019) Modeling ingrowth for empirical forest prediction systems. For Ecol Manag 433:771–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.11.052
Publication history
Copyright
Acknowledgements
We thank Oliver Jakoby for inspiring discussions on calculating disturbance predisposition indices, Steffen Hermann for providing estimates on deadwood decomposition and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
FEEDBACK 
TOP