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Forest Ecosystems 2016, 3(1): 29 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-015-0054-3
Research | Open Access | Issue | Published: 26 October 2015

Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

Show Author's Information Joseph Buongiorno( )
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA
Keywords:
Climate change, CO2 fertilization, Prices, Supply, Demand, International trade
Cite this article:
Buongiorno J. Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries. Forest Ecosystems, 2016, 3(1): 29. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-015-0054-3
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Abstract Full text About this article
Background

This paper explored the long-term,ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005,102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].

Methods

Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising [CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B,A2,and B2. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production,consumption,prices,and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario,with and without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065.

Results

CO2 fertilization increased wood supply,leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However,production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2 fertilization.

Conclusion

The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.


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Abstract
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About this article

Modeling some long-term implications of CO2 fertilization for global forests and forest industries

Show Author's information Joseph Buongiorno( )
Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA

Abstract

Background

This paper explored the long-term,ceteris-paribus effects of potential CO2 fertilization on the global forest sector. Based on the findings of Norby et al. (PNAS 2005,102(50)) about forest response to elevated [CO2].

Methods

Forest productivity was increased in the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) in proportion to the rising [CO2] projected in the IPCC scenario A1B,A2,and B2. Projections of the forest area and forest stock and of the production,consumption,prices,and trade of products ranging from fuelwood to paper and paperboard were obtained with the GFPM for each scenario,with and without CO2 fertilization beginning in 2011 and up to 2065.

Results

CO2 fertilization increased wood supply,leading to lower wood prices which in turn induced modest lower prices of end products and higher global consumption. However,production and value added in industries decreased in some regions due to the relative competitive advantages and to the varying regional effects of CO2 fertilization.

Conclusion

The main effect of CO2 fertilization was to raise the level of the world forest stock in 2065 by 9 to 10 % for scenarios A2 and B2 and by 20 % for scenario A1B. The rise in forest stock induced by fertilization was in part counteracted by its stimulation of the wood supply which resulted in lower wood prices and increased harvests.

Keywords: Climate change, CO2 fertilization, Prices, Supply, Demand, International trade

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Publication history
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Acknowledgements
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Publication history

Received: 30 June 2015
Accepted: 14 October 2015
Published: 26 October 2015
Issue date: March 2016

Copyright

© 2015 Buongiorno.

Acknowledgements

The research leading to this paper was supported in part by a joint venture agreement with the USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station in cooperation with project leader Jeff Prestemon.

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Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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