321
Views
7
Downloads
1
Crossref
N/A
WoS
1
Scopus
0
CSCD
Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.
Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.
Arhonditsis GB, Adams-VanHarn BA, Nielsen L, Stow CA, Reckhow KH (2006) Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling: citation analysis and future perspectives. Environ Sci Technol 40(21):6547-6554
Bennett ND, Croke BFW, Guariso G, Guillaume JHA, Hamilton SH, Jakeman AJ, Marsili-Libelli S, Newham LTH, Norton JP, Perrin C, Pierce SA, Robson B, Seppelt R, Voinov AA, Fath BD, Andreassian V (2013) Characterising performance of environmental models. Environ Model Softw 40:1-20
Calkin DE, Finney MA, Ager AA, Thompson MP, Gebert KG (2011) Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for Federal wildland fire policy and decision making in the United States. Forest Policy Econ 13(5):378-389
Calkin DE, Cohen JD, Finney MA, Thompson MP (2014) How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(2):746-751
Collins R, de Neufville R, Claro J, Oliveira T, Pacheco A (2013) Forest fire management to avoid unintended consequences: a case study of Portugal using system dynamics. J Environ Manag 130:1-9
Finney MA, Grenfell IC, McHugh CW (2009) Modeling containment of large wildfires using generalized linear mixed-model analysis. For Sci 55:249-255
Fried JS, Fried BD (1996) Simulating wildfire containment with realistic tactics. For Sci 42(3):267-281
Holmes TP, Calkin DE (2013) Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires. Int J Wildland Fire 22(13):234-245
Jakeman AJ, Letcher RA, Norton JP (2006) Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models. Environ Model Softw 21(5):602-614
Kahneman D, Klein G (2009) Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree. Am Psychol 64(6):515
Kelly RA, Jakeman AJ, Barreteau O, Borsuk ME, ElSawah S, Hamilton SH, Henriksen HJ, Kuikka S, Maier HR, Rizzoli AE, van Delden H, Voinov AA (2013) Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environ Model Softw 47:159-181
Nickerson RS (1998) Confirmation bias: a ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Rev Gen Psychol 2(2):175-220
Noonan-Wright E, Opperman TS, Finney MA, Zimmerman TG, Seli RC, Elenz LM, Calkin DE, Fiedler JR (2011) Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). J Combust. doi:10.1155/2011/168473
Ntaimo L, Gallego-Arrubla JA, Gan J, Stripling C, Young J, Spencer T (2013) A simulation and stochastic integer programming approach to wildfire initial attack planning. For Sci 59(1):105-117
Robson BJ (2014) State of the art in modelling of phosphorus in aquatic systems: review, criticisms and commentary. Environ Model Softw. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.012
Venn TJ, Calkin DE (2011) Accommodating non-market values in evaluation of wildfire management in the United States: challenges and opportunities. Int J Wildland Fire 20(3):327-339
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.