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Forest Ecosystems 2014, 1(2): 10 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-014-0010-7
Research Article | Open Access | Issue | Published: 30 July 2014

Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe

Show Author's Information Timo Möykkynen,  Timo Pukkala( )
University of Eastern Finland, PO Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
Keywords:
Invasive pest, Spread model, Spatio-temporal model
Cite this article:
Möykkynen T, Pukkala T. Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe. Forest Ecosystems, 2014, 1(2): 10. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-014-0010-7
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Abstract Full text About this article
Background

The Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) (SM) defoliates several tree species from the genera Larix, Picea and Abies in northern Asia, east of the Urals. The SM is a potential invasive forest pest in Europe because Europe has several suitable host species and climatic conditions of central and northern Europe are favourable for the SM.

Methods

This study developed a grid-based spatio-temporal model for simulating the spread of the SM in case it enters Europe from Russia via border stations. The spread rate was modeled as a function of the spatial distribution of host species, climatic suitability of different locations for the SM, human population density, transportation of moth-carrying material, and flying of moths from tree to tree.

Results and conclusions

The simulations showed that the SM is most likely to spread in the forests of northeast Belarus, the Baltic countries, and southern and central Finland. Climatic conditions affected the occurrence of the SM more than human population density and the coverage of suitable host species.


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About this article

Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe

Show Author's information Timo Möykkynen, Timo Pukkala( )
University of Eastern Finland, PO Box 111, 80101 Joensuu, Finland

Abstract

Background

The Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) (SM) defoliates several tree species from the genera Larix, Picea and Abies in northern Asia, east of the Urals. The SM is a potential invasive forest pest in Europe because Europe has several suitable host species and climatic conditions of central and northern Europe are favourable for the SM.

Methods

This study developed a grid-based spatio-temporal model for simulating the spread of the SM in case it enters Europe from Russia via border stations. The spread rate was modeled as a function of the spatial distribution of host species, climatic suitability of different locations for the SM, human population density, transportation of moth-carrying material, and flying of moths from tree to tree.

Results and conclusions

The simulations showed that the SM is most likely to spread in the forests of northeast Belarus, the Baltic countries, and southern and central Finland. Climatic conditions affected the occurrence of the SM more than human population density and the coverage of suitable host species.

Keywords: Invasive pest, Spread model, Spatio-temporal model

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Publication history
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Publication history

Received: 04 June 2014
Accepted: 08 July 2014
Published: 30 July 2014
Issue date: June 2014

Copyright

© 2014 Möykkynen and Pukkala; licensee Springer.

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

This study was made within the EU-funded project ISEFOR (Increasing Sustainability of European Forests: modelling for security against invasive pests and pathogens under climate change). We would like to thank Dr. Natalia Kirichenko, Dr. Dmitri Musolin and Dr. Julie Flament for valuable assistance.

Rights and permissions

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.

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