Modelling of the spread of a potential invasive pest, the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) in Europe

The Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) (SM) defoliates several tree species from the genera Larix, Picea and Abies in northern Asia, east of the Urals. The SM is a potential invasive forest pest in Europe because Europe has several suitable host species and climatic conditions of central and northern Europe are favourable for the SM.

This study developed a grid-based spatio-temporal model for simulating the spread of the SM in case it enters Europe from Russia via border stations. The spread rate was modeled as a function of the spatial distribution of host species, climatic suitability of different locations for the SM, human population density, transportation of moth-carrying material, and flying of moths from tree to tree.

The simulations showed that the SM is most likely to spread in the forests of northeast Belarus, the Baltic countries, and southern and central Finland. Climatic conditions affected the occurrence of the SM more than human population density and the coverage of suitable host species.