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Avian Research 2018, 9(1): 7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40657-018-0099-4
Research | Open Access | Issue | Published: 05 March 2018

Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China

Show Author's Information Diann J. Prosser1,2 ( ),  Changqing Ding3,  R. Michael Erwin1,4,  Taej Mundkur5,  Jeffery D. Sullivan6,  Erle C. Ellis7
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey Beltsville, USA
University of Maryland, College Park, USA
College of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University Beijing, China
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, USA
Wetlands International, Ede, The Netherlands
Natural Systems Analysts Winter Park, USA
Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, USA
Keywords:
H5N1, Spatial analysis, Waterfowl, China, Anatidae, Avian influenza, Habitat suitability, Species distribution models
Cite this article:
Prosser DJ, Ding C, Michael Erwin R, et al. Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China. Avian Research, 2018, 9(1): 7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40657-018-0099-4
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Abstract Full text About this article
Background

A number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China.

Methods

Faced with limited data, we built species distribution models using a habitat suitability approach for China's breeding and non-breeding (hereafter, wintering) waterfowl. An extensive review of the literature was used to determine model parameters for habitat modeling. Habitat relationships were implemented in GIS using land cover covariates. Wintering models were validated using waterfowl census data, while breeding models, though developed for many species, were only validated for the one species with sufficient telemetry data available.

Results

We developed suitability models for 42 waterfowl species (30 breeding and 39 wintering) at 1 km resolution for the extent of China, along with cumulative and genus level species richness maps. Breeding season models showed highest waterfowl suitability in wetlands of the high-elevation west-central plateau and northeastern China. Wintering waterfowl suitability was highest in the lowland regions of southeastern China. Validation measures indicated strong performance in predicting species presence. Comparing our model outputs to China's protected areas indicated that breeding habitat was generally better covered than wintering habitat, and identified locations for which additional research and protection should be prioritized.

Conclusions

These suitability models are the first available for many of China's waterfowl species, and have direct utility to conservation and habitat planning and prioritizing management of critically important areas, providing an example of how this approach may aid others faced with the challenge of addressing conservation issues with little data to inform decision making.


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Abstract
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About this article

Species distribution modeling in regions of high need and limited data: waterfowl of China

Show Author's information Diann J. Prosser1,2 ( ), Changqing Ding3, R. Michael Erwin1,4, Taej Mundkur5, Jeffery D. Sullivan6, Erle C. Ellis7
Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey Beltsville, USA
University of Maryland, College Park, USA
College of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University Beijing, China
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, USA
Wetlands International, Ede, The Netherlands
Natural Systems Analysts Winter Park, USA
Department of Geography and Environmental Systems, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, USA

Abstract

Background

A number of conservation and societal issues require understanding how species are distributed on the landscape, yet ecologists are often faced with a lack of data to develop models at the resolution and extent desired, resulting in inefficient use of conservation resources. Such a situation presented itself in our attempt to develop waterfowl distribution models as part of a multi-disciplinary team targeting the control of the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in China.

Methods

Faced with limited data, we built species distribution models using a habitat suitability approach for China's breeding and non-breeding (hereafter, wintering) waterfowl. An extensive review of the literature was used to determine model parameters for habitat modeling. Habitat relationships were implemented in GIS using land cover covariates. Wintering models were validated using waterfowl census data, while breeding models, though developed for many species, were only validated for the one species with sufficient telemetry data available.

Results

We developed suitability models for 42 waterfowl species (30 breeding and 39 wintering) at 1 km resolution for the extent of China, along with cumulative and genus level species richness maps. Breeding season models showed highest waterfowl suitability in wetlands of the high-elevation west-central plateau and northeastern China. Wintering waterfowl suitability was highest in the lowland regions of southeastern China. Validation measures indicated strong performance in predicting species presence. Comparing our model outputs to China's protected areas indicated that breeding habitat was generally better covered than wintering habitat, and identified locations for which additional research and protection should be prioritized.

Conclusions

These suitability models are the first available for many of China's waterfowl species, and have direct utility to conservation and habitat planning and prioritizing management of critically important areas, providing an example of how this approach may aid others faced with the challenge of addressing conservation issues with little data to inform decision making.

Keywords: H5N1, Spatial analysis, Waterfowl, China, Anatidae, Avian influenza, Habitat suitability, Species distribution models

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Publication history
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Publication history

Received: 23 August 2017
Accepted: 27 February 2018
Published: 05 March 2018
Issue date: January 2018

Copyright

© The Author(s) 2018.

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Dingnan Lee (Beijing Forestry University) and Shane Heath (USGS) for collating Anatidae literature and developing the database; and Lei Cao (Chinese Academy of Sciences) for discussions on next steps for improving the models. We thank Ruth DeFries of Columbia University for her remote sensing and modeling expertise through all stages of this work. We thank Paul Marban (USGS) for formatting the species distribution maps, and Mike Haramis and two anonymous reviewers for improving earlier drafts of this manuscript. We also thank the many volunteers who contributed to the Asian Waterbird Census by conducting wintering waterbird surveys in China. The use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

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