Opportunities and challenges in global petroleum exploration

The century-long history of the oil and gas industry in the world has witnessed rapid advancements in petroleum exploration and an ever-expanding scope of research. The dynamic evaluation of oil and gas resources has played a crucial role in guiding and facilitating this process. Specifically, theoretical breakthroughs and initial exploration help identify new potential plays, while resource evaluation and exploration practices together drive both theoretical and technological progress. These contribute to a great leap forward in new areas of petroleum exploration. Over the past two decades, driven by technological advancements and the goals of achieving carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions, global petroleum exploration efforts have been extended into deep-water environments, deep plays, and unconventional resources dominated by shale oil and gas, continuously opening new frontiers. According to the independent evaluation of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) 2024, the technically recoverable oil and gas resources worldwide amount to 1868.4 billion tons of oil equivalent, with conventional recoverable resources accounting for 61.2% and unconventional recoverable resources representing 38.8%. Therefore, conventional hydrocarbon resources remain the primary source of utilization, while unconventional hydrocarbon resources serve as an effective supplement. In the next 30 years, oil and gas will continue to play a vital role in global primary energy consumption. In this context, Chinese oil companies should sustain production and ensure sustainable development by securing numerous new overseas petroleum exploration and exploitation projects. Focusing on the high-quality petroleum exploration and exploitation overseas and in combination with petroleum geological conditions, resource potential, and cooperation environments, top ten major regions should be given priority for conventional petroleum exploration in the next decade, such as the Russian Arctic, the Central South Atlantic, and offshore East Africa. For shale oil exploration, seven major regions should be highlighted, including the Arabian Basin in the Middle East, the Volga-Urals Basin and West Siberian Basin in Russia, and the Bongor Basin and the southern Chad Basin of the West and Central African rift system. With the profound transformation of the global energy landscape and increasing difficulties in resource development, petroleum exploration is confronted with unprecedented complex challenges. Moving forward, the deep integration of theory, technology, exploration models, and intelligence will be a critical approach to successful petroleum exploration in the future.