Rail freight development and modal shift from road transport: an empirical analysis of economic, energy and environmental perceptions in Morocco

The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of modal shift intention from road freight transport to rail freight in Morocco, focusing on the perceived economic, energy and environmental performance of rail freight.

A quantitative survey was conducted among key freight transport stakeholders, including road carriers, industrial shippers, logistics operators and experts. A total of 483 valid questionnaires were collected. Measurement scales were derived from the literature and adapted to the Moroccan context. Data were analyzed using SPSS through descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, correlation tests and multiple linear regression.

The results indicate generally positive perceptions of rail freight, particularly regarding energy efficiency and environmental performance. All three perceived performance dimensions have a positive and significant effect on modal shift intention. Perceived energy performance emerges as the strongest predictor, followed by environmental impact, while economic performance shows a significant but more moderate influence. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power.

The study relies on perceptual data and a non-probabilistic sampling approach, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research could integrate objective cost, energy and emission data; apply longitudinal designs or extend the model by incorporating institutional, infrastructural and policy-related variables to further explain rail freight adoption.

The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, rail operators and logistics managers by highlighting the key levers for promoting rail freight development. Strengthening rail energy efficiency, improving service reliability and enhancing intermodal integration can significantly increase stakeholders’ willingness to shift freight from road to rail.

By encouraging modal shift toward rail freight, the study supports broader societal objectives related to environmental protection, energy security and sustainable development. Increased use of rail freight can contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, lower road congestion and improved quality of life in urban and industrial areas.

This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of rail freight modal shift determinants in Morocco, offering an integrated analysis of economic, energy and environmental factors within a single conceptual framework.